Ballon d'Or 2026: did a bettor use insider information to profit €180,000 on Polymarket?

Harry Kane won the 2026 Ballon d'Or, but suspicious betting activity on Polymarket suggests potential insider trading, with one bettor allegedly profiting €180,000 through coordinated accounts.

Harry Kane claimed the 2026 Ballon d'Or on Monday at London's Palladium, finishing ahead of Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal. However, analysis by Upside, a predictive market research firm, has identified potentially fraudulent betting activity on the Polymarket platform surrounding the award ceremony.

Upside identified suspicious patterns across twelve accounts created between October 1–20, all placing bets totalling over $264,000. The bettor reportedly made €180,000 (approximately $200,000) in profit without a single losing wager. Notably, seven accounts bet exclusively on the Ballon d'Or evening, while six placed bets only within 15 minutes of account creation and never again.

Raphaël Pautard, CEO of Upside Groupe, highlighted the illogical betting strategy: the bettor took greater risk betting on specific finishing positions for Mbappé and Yamal than on Kane's outright victory, for only a 20–30% higher potential return. The accounts also showed coordinated timing and behaviour patterns consistent with a single operator using multiple identities. Unlike regulated French sportsbooks, Polymarket does not verify user identity, making enforcement difficult.