Nottingham Forest's January transfer plans – and two reasons Glasner is safe

Forest are fourth in expected points despite 18th place, with Glasner backed by new CFO Syrianos who rates him third-best in the Premier League.

Nottingham Forest sit 18th with six points and one win after eight games, but the club believes their underlying performance suggests better times ahead. Opta's expected points model has Forest fourth with 14 points – eight more than their actual tally – while Understat data shows that of 25 teams to sustain Forest's expected goals numbers over a full season, none finished outside the top four and ten won the title.

The calm inside the club stems from a new strategic plan led by chief football officer George Syrianos, a former Stuttgart data analyst empowered by recent promotions and the departures of Ross Wilson and Edu. Syrianos has told supporters' representatives he would back manager Oliver Glasner even if Forest were relegated, and has rated him the third-best manager in the Premier League using an in-house statistical model.

Forest's recruitment strategy focuses on young players from South America and Europe's top leagues, plus English talent from clubs squeezed by financial rules. The club tried to sign Everton's Harrison Armstrong in the summer but the deal collapsed when news leaked and provoked an angry response from Everton. Forest remain interested in Spurs' Lucas Bergvall and have a third midfielder target on their shortlist, though Glasner has said he is happy with his current squad.