Suspicious bets returning £149,000 for predicting Ballon d'Or under investigation

France Football and police are investigating suspicious bets on Polymarket that correctly predicted the exact top-five Ballon d'Or finishing order, raising concerns about a potential results leak.

A series of suspicious bets placed on American cryptocurrency platform Polymarket correctly predicted the exact top-five finishing order of this year's Ballon d'Or, generating almost $200,000 in winnings and prompting an investigation by France Football and French police.

Twelve Polymarket accounts, created between 1 and 20 October, wagered over $264,000 on the outcome before Monday's ceremony. The accounts displayed strikingly similar patterns: seven had not participated in any other betting markets, and six placed their first bets just 15 minutes after being created. Rather than spreading money across different outcomes, they concentrated their wagers on a specific scenario: Harry Kane winning, followed by Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi in the exact order that was subsequently announced.

Investigators from French media outlet Upside traced one transaction back to a French platform and identified the individual behind one account. France Football, which organises the awards, confirmed on Friday that an investigation has been opened. The precision of the predictions and the amount of money involved raise serious concerns about whether confidential results leaked before the official announcement, particularly given that only a handful of people knew the winner in advance.