Damning data: stats that show Michael Carrick's luck was bound to run out

Statistical analysis reveals Carrick's strong 2025-26 record was built on unsustainable luck; United have underperformed expected points this season and face tactical questions.

Manchester United have been the third-best team in the Premier League during Michael Carrick's tenure, with 46 points compared to Arsenal's 57 and Manchester City's 56. However, their current 16th-place position with no wins in eight games tells a different story.

Analysis shows Carrick's successful 2025-26 interim spell was heavily influenced by fortune. United outperformed their expected points by 12.7 that season—7.6 more than any other club—with eight of their 12 league wins coming by a single goal. Expected goal data suggests many of those victories were decided by narrow margins that could easily have gone the other way. This season, Opta's model indicates United have earned 3.8 points fewer than their underlying performance merits, placing them among the unluckiest clubs.

Beyond luck, deeper issues have emerged. United struggle to break down teams despite dominating possession, drawing blanks against Hull and Bournemouth while holding 72% and 63% possession respectively. Captain Bruno Fernandes questioned the tactical approach after defeat to Como, though Carrick pointed to insufficient running intensity. United lead the division for shots but have the second-worst non-penalty expected goals per shot average, with an unusually high proportion of efforts from outside the box.