Expectation vs reality: What if Man Utd have become a mid-table team?

Analysis suggests Man Utd's underlying performance metrics indicate a mid-table team that has consistently overperformed relative to expected points over the past decade.

Michael Carrick has been retained as Manchester United manager despite the club considering a fourth managerial change in four years following their 3-0 defeat to Bournemouth. However, a Sky Sports analysis using expected points modelling suggests United's true level may be far lower than their actual league finishes indicate.

The data shows United have accumulated 669 Premier League points since Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement in 2013—the fifth-highest total—but their expected points model puts them at 613, meaning they have taken 56 more points than their performances warranted. Only Everton have outperformed their expected points by a larger margin in that period.

Carrick himself is the biggest overperformer among recent United managers, averaging 1.85 points per game against an expected 1.37. Last season he guided United to third place on 71 points when expected points suggested they should have finished two places lower. The analysis reveals that in eight of the last ten seasons, United have finished higher than expected based on performance quality. Between 2021/22 and 2025/26, their average expected finishing position was ninth—despite a net spend of £1.4bn, 40 per cent higher than any other Premier League club since 2016. The underlying numbers suggest recruitment and squad quality issues run deeper than managerial performance.